Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Braves @ Tigers ALCN @ TXSO

ALCORN STATE

BRAVESALCN

9-23  |  Road

87
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 3:15 PM ET
H&PE Arena
View Odds Details →

TEXAS SOUTHERN

TIGERSTXSO

12-18  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
45%
📊
TIGERS
55%
BRAVES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Texas Southern)
BravesALCN (-3.5) 0 TigersTXSO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

9.7%

Tigers Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXSO -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXSO)

ALCN By 1-7 points

6.8%

ALCN By 8-14 points

1.7%

TXSO By 1-7 points

18.6%

TXSO By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
73
ALCORN STATE
86
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
ALCORN STATE
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 ALCN @ TXSO 87 - 92
Jan 17, 2026 TXSO @ ALCN 72 - 71
Mar 3, 2025 TXSO @ ALCN 75 - 59
Jan 18, 2025 ALCN @ TXSO 57 - 66
Mar 4, 2024 ALCN @ TXSO 82 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +11.0% more
Texas Southern: 33.6 vs Alcorn State: 30.3
Turnovers (L5) +8.2% more
Texas Southern: 11.7 vs Alcorn State: 10.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Texas Southern: 34.4% vs Alcorn State: 29.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Texas Southern: 48.2% vs Alcorn State: 45.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALCN Score 73.0 87
TXSO Score 86.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 29.5 21.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.4 / 11.6 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.0 / 4.1 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 45.2 49.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 75.8 79.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 30.3 42.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.4 / 10.3 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 10.8 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALCN
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
TXSO Advantage
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALCN Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
TXSO
9-19-0 (32.1%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXSO
ALCN
TXSO
ALCN
ML
64% 18-10
66% 21-11
71% 17-7
75% 18-6
ATS
61% 17-11
68% 21-10-1
71% 17-7
75% 18-6
TTL
71% 20-8
47% 15-17
100% 24-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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