TEXAS A&M
AGGIESTA&M
22-12 | Road
84
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
28-9 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
45%
RAZORBACKS
55%
AGGIES
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
20%
Under 0
80%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Arkansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)
TA&M By 1-7 points
6.8%
TA&M By 8-14 points
1.7%
ARK By 1-7 points
18.6%
ARK By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas A&M
74
TEXAS A&M
Arkansas
87
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Texas A&M
TEXAS A&M
Arkansas
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Razorbacks
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Razorbacks (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u170.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
TA&M @ ARK
84 - 99
Feb 15, 2025
ARK @ TA&M
61 - 69
Feb 20, 2024
ARK @ TA&M
78 - 71
Jan 16, 2024
TA&M @ ARK
77 - 78
Mar 10, 2023
ARK @ TA&M
61 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+143.0% more
Arkansas: 6.6
vs
Texas A&M: 2.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.0%
Arkansas: 78.8%
vs
Texas A&M: 65.9%
Assists (L5)
+10.7% more
Arkansas: 17.3
vs
Texas A&M: 15.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.3%
Arkansas: 52.5%
vs
Texas A&M: 44.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TA&M Score
74.0
84
ARK Score
87.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.8 / 34.4
24.0 / 32.0
Assists
17.3 / 15.6
18.0 / 18.0
Blocks
6.6 / 2.7
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
52.5 / 44.2
51.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
78.8 / 65.9
88.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
33.1 / 37.5
36.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.6 / 5.2
9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
6.3 / 8.8
9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TA&M
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +0.6
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TA&M
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +0.6
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TA&M
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +2.0
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
TA&M
ARK
TA&M
ML
68%
25-12
67%
20-10
81%
25-6
54%
15-13
ATS
70%
26-11
67%
20-10
81%
25-6
54%
15-13
TTL
57%
21-16
70%
21-9
100%
31-0
100%
28-0
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