XAVIER
MUSKETEERSXAV
15-18 | Road
84
PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
15-18 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
MUSKETEERS
45%
FRIARS
55%
MUSKETEERS
--
FRIARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
30%
Under 0
70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Providence)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PROV -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)
XAV By 1-7 points
23.0%
XAV By 8-14 points
12.2%
PROV By 1-7 points
26.8%
PROV By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Xavier
82
XAVIER
Providence
84
PROVIDENCE
Simulated Score
Xavier
XAVIER
Providence
PROVIDENCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Friars
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Friars (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u171.5
Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
XAV @ PROV
84 - 94
Jan 10, 2026
PROV @ XAV
84 - 97
Mar 8, 2025
PROV @ XAV
68 - 76
Feb 12, 2025
XAV @ PROV
91 - 82
Feb 21, 2024
PROV @ XAV
79 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+50.3% more
Providence: 15.6
vs
Xavier: 10.4
Rebounding (L5)
+17.0% more
Providence: 41.7
vs
Xavier: 35.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.8%
Providence: 38.7%
vs
Xavier: 36.8%
Steals (L5)
+33.8% more
Xavier: 4.6
vs
Providence: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
XAV Score
82.0
84
PROV Score
84.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 36.8
50.0 / 23.0
Assists
12.7 / 17.3
8.0 / 6.0
Blocks
3.5 / 4.1
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 45.9
54.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
73.1 / 79.2
76.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
41.7 / 35.6
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
3.0 / 4.6
2.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 10.4
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
XAV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -1.2
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
XAV
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -2.3
ATS +/-: -1.2
PROV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PROV
XAV
PROV
XAV
ML
59%
19-13
58%
19-14
67%
20-10
72%
23-9
ATS
50%
16-16
73%
24-9
67%
20-10
72%
23-9
TTL
44%
14-18
39%
13-20
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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