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MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE

DELTA DEVILSMVSU

3-30  |  Road

62
FINAL
Mon, Feb 23 • 4:00 PM ET
Fredrick C. Hobdy Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

GRAMBLING

TIGERSGRAM

14-19  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
DELTA DEVILS
40%
📊
TIGERS
60%
DELTA DEVILS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
GRAMBLING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Grambling)
Delta DevilsMVSU (-3.5) 0 TigersGRAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delta Devils Cover

27.4%

Tigers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GRAM -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GRAM)

MVSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

MVSU By 8-14 points

6.8%

GRAM By 1-7 points

26.8%

GRAM By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
67
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
73
GRAMBLING
Simulated Score
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
GRAMBLING
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 MVSU @ GRAM 52 - 77
Feb 23, 2026 MVSU @ GRAM 62 - 83
Jan 25, 2025 GRAM @ MVSU 65 - 54
Jan 27, 2024 MVSU @ GRAM 46 - 54
Jan 21, 2023 GRAM @ MVSU 65 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.3% more
Grambling: 14.5 vs Mississippi Valley State: 11.9
Steals (L5) +12.5% more
Grambling: 7.6 vs Mississippi Valley State: 6.7
Rebounding (L5) +9.6% more
Grambling: 33.2 vs Mississippi Valley State: 30.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.8%
Grambling: 78.1% vs Mississippi Valley State: 70.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MVSU Score 67.0 62
GRAM Score 73.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.4 / 29.6 38.0 / 25.0
Assists 11.9 / 11.2 15.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.9 / 1.8 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.4 / 41.9 54.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 78.1 / 70.3 71.0 / 53.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 30.3 38.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.7 8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 11.9 20.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MVSU
3-30-0 (9.1%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
GRAM Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MVSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
GRAM
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +1.0
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GRAM
MVSU
GRAM
MVSU
ML
68% 21-10
91% 30-3
68% 17-8
75% 18-6
ATS
61% 19-12
82% 27-6
68% 17-8
75% 18-6
TTL
58% 18-13
58% 19-14
100% 25-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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