Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gaels @ Cougars SMC @ WSU

SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

27-6  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 5:07 PM ET
Beasley Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

COUGARSWSU

12-20  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
70%
📊
COUGARS
30%
GAELS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Saint Mary's)
GaelsSMC (-3.5) 0 CougarsWSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gaels Cover

97.1%

Cougars Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SMC -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)

SMC By 1-7 points

9.3%

SMC By 8-14 points

20.1%

WSU By 1-7 points

2.2%

WSU By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
83
SAINT MARY'S
64
WASHINGTON STATE
Simulated Score
SAINT MARY'S
WASHINGTON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Gaels Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Gaels (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 SMC @ WSU 83 - 67
Jan 10, 2026 WSU @ SMC 82 - 88
Feb 15, 2025 WSU @ SMC 56 - 77
Jan 25, 2025 SMC @ WSU 80 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +41.3% more
Saint Mary's: 4.5 vs Washington State: 2.7
Rebounding (L5) +21.4% more
Saint Mary's: 40.3 vs Washington State: 31.7
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
Saint Mary's: 77.8% vs Washington State: 73.9%
Turnovers (L5) +14.5% more
Washington State: 12.2 vs Saint Mary's: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMC Score 83.0 83
WSU Score 64.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.0 / 35.2 37.0 / 50.0
Assists 15.0 / 15.3 10.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.5 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 44.4 44.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 77.8 77.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 40.3 25.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.4 / 5.6 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 10.7 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
99%TICKETS1%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC Advantage
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
WSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
WSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
WSU
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
SMC
WSU
SMC
ML
78% 25-7
56% 18-14
69% 20-9
82% 23-5
ATS
78% 25-7
62% 20-12
69% 20-9
83% 24-5
TTL
62% 20-12
53% 17-15
100% 29-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 5 hours, 57 minutes ago
Houston Cougars Set for Road Test Against Kansas State in Big 12…
si 1 day, 5 hours ago
Houston Cougars Erase 17-Point Deficit to Stun UCF in Space Game
si 4 days, 23 hours ago
Houston Cougars Set for Nationally Televised Road Battle at Kans…
headtopics 1 week ago
Houston Cougars Survive Georgia Southern Scare: Offensive Firepo…
si 1 week, 4 days ago