KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
22-14 | Road
74
AUBURN
TIGERSAUB
22-16 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
65%
TIGERS
35%
WILDCATS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AUB +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)
UK By 1-7 points
27.2%
UK By 8-14 points
20.1%
AUB By 1-7 points
21.6%
AUB By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Kentucky
88
KENTUCKY
Auburn
85
AUBURN
Simulated Score
Kentucky
KENTUCKY
Auburn
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats
Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o155.5
Loss
Proj Total: 173.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
UK @ AUB
74 - 75
Mar 1, 2025
AUB @ UK
94 - 78
Feb 17, 2024
UK @ AUB
70 - 59
Feb 25, 2023
AUB @ UK
54 - 86
Jan 22, 2022
UK @ AUB
71 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+33.5% more
Kentucky: 11.4
vs
Auburn: 7.6
Blocks (L5)
+28.7% more
Kentucky: 4.3
vs
Auburn: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+20.6% more
Kentucky: 13.7
vs
Auburn: 10.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.6%
Kentucky: 45.9%
vs
Auburn: 41.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UK Score
88.0
74
AUB Score
85.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 38.9
26.0 / 26.0
Assists
10.9 / 13.7
12.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.3
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.3 / 45.9
40.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
77.8 / 65.9
83.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 38.4
33.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.3 / 5.4
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
7.6 / 11.4
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK
Advantage
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
AUB
22-16-0
(57.9%)
Margin: 4.2
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
AUB
15-23-0
(39.5%)
Margin: 4.2
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
UK
AUB
UK
ML
58%
22-16
71%
25-10
75%
24-8
72%
23-9
ATS
74%
28-10
83%
29-6
75%
24-8
72%
23-9
TTL
53%
20-18
63%
22-13
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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