PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
15-18 | Road
71
DEPAUL
BLUE DEMONSDEP
16-16 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
50%
BLUE DEMONS
50%
FRIARS
--
BLUE DEMONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Providence)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PROV -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)
PROV By 1-7 points
16.9%
PROV By 8-14 points
26.2%
DEP By 1-7 points
5.8%
DEP By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Providence
85
PROVIDENCE
DePaul
71
DEPAUL
Simulated Score
Providence
PROVIDENCE
DePaul
DEPAUL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Friars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Friars (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
PROV @ DEP
71 - 68
Feb 7, 2026
DEP @ PROV
72 - 90
Mar 5, 2025
DEP @ PROV
80 - 77
Dec 10, 2024
PROV @ DEP
70 - 63
Feb 17, 2024
DEP @ PROV
70 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+34.6% more
Providence: 4.2
vs
DePaul: 2.8
Rebounding (L5)
+23.1% more
Providence: 42.0
vs
DePaul: 32.3
Turnovers (L5)
+15.3% more
Providence: 14.5
vs
DePaul: 12.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.0%
Providence: 78.7%
vs
DePaul: 64.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PROV Score
85.0
71
DEP Score
71.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.6 / 33.0
23.0 / 50.0
Assists
13.2 / 11.5
17.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.8 / 4.2
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 44.7
38.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
64.7 / 78.7
50.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
32.3 / 42.0
31.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.4 / 3.5
8.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 14.5
7.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
DEP
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
DEP
Advantage
18-12-2
(60.0%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
DEP
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6%
Total +/-: -5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEP
PROV
DEP
PROV
ML
59%
19-13
59%
19-13
80%
24-6
67%
20-10
ATS
50%
16-16
50%
16-16
80%
24-6
67%
20-10
TTL
53%
17-15
44%
14-18
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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