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IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

29-8  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 5:38 PM ET
Marriott Center
View Odds Details →

BYU

COUGARSBYU

23-12  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
CYCLONES
65%
📊
COUGARS
35%
CYCLONES --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Iowa State)
CyclonesISU (-3.5) 0 CougarsBYU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cyclones Cover

94.5%

Cougars Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ISU -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

ISU By 1-7 points

13.7%

ISU By 8-14 points

24.3%

BYU By 1-7 points

4.0%

BYU By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
78
IOWA STATE
62
BYU
Simulated Score
IOWA STATE
BYU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cyclones Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cyclones (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 ISU @ BYU 69 - 79
Mar 13, 2025 ISU @ BYU 92 - 96
Mar 4, 2025 BYU @ ISU 88 - 85
Mar 6, 2024 BYU @ ISU 63 - 68
Jan 16, 2024 ISU @ BYU 72 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +30.1% more
Iowa State: 16.3 vs BYU: 11.4
Steals (L5) +20.6% more
Iowa State: 6.4 vs BYU: 5.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Iowa State: 37.1% vs BYU: 33.0%
Blocks (L5) +95.6% more
BYU: 4.9 vs Iowa State: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 78.0 69
BYU Score 62.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 37.1 28.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.4 / 16.3 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.9 / 2.5 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 47.6 50.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 76.2 / 52.3 70.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 33.7 39.0 / 28.0
Steals 5.1 / 6.4 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 8.5 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
BYU
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
BYU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
BYU
17-18-0
O: 48.6% / U: 51.4% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
ISU
BYU
ISU
ML
60% 21-14
57% 21-16
72% 23-9
76% 26-8
ATS
54% 19-16
62% 23-14
72% 23-9
76% 26-8
TTL
69% 24-11
54% 20-17
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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