Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Braves JKST @ ALCN

JACKSON STATE

TIGERSJKST

12-21  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 11:45 AM ET
Davey L. Whitney Complex
View Odds Details →

ALCORN STATE

BRAVESALCN

9-23  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
60%
📊
BRAVES
40%
TIGERS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ALCORN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Alcorn State)
TigersJKST (-3.5) 0 BravesALCN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

42.1%

Braves Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALCN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALCN)

JKST By 1-7 points

23.0%

JKST By 8-14 points

12.2%

ALCN By 1-7 points

26.8%

ALCN By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
87
JACKSON STATE
89
ALCORN STATE
Simulated Score
JACKSON STATE
ALCORN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 JKST @ ALCN 65 - 83
Jan 3, 2026 ALCN @ JKST 86 - 89
Feb 22, 2025 ALCN @ JKST 63 - 71
Jan 4, 2025 JKST @ ALCN 72 - 69
Feb 24, 2024 JKST @ ALCN 73 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +32.3% more
Alcorn State: 8.9 vs Jackson State: 6.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Alcorn State: 47.3% vs Jackson State: 44.3%
Rebounding (L5) +34.4% more
Jackson State: 38.0 vs Alcorn State: 24.9
Turnovers (L5) +15.5% more
Jackson State: 12.7 vs Alcorn State: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JKST Score 87.0 65
ALCN Score 89.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.7 / 37.6 27.0 / 19.0
Assists 12.4 / 12.5 10.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.7 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 44.3 41.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 76.6 76.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 24.9 / 38.0 41.0 / 34.0
Steals 8.9 / 6.7 13.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 12.7 11.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JKST Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
ALCN
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JKST
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
ALCN Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
JKST
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.2
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALCN
JKST
ALCN
JKST
ML
66% 21-11
77% 24-7
75% 18-6
73% 19-7
ATS
68% 21-10-1
77% 24-7
75% 18-6
73% 19-7
TTL
47% 15-17
58% 18-13
100% 24-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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