JAMES MADISON
DUKESJMU
18-15 | Road
80
GEORGIA STATE
PANTHERSGAST
10-22 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
64%
PANTHERS
36%
DUKES
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
5%
Under 0
95%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (James Madison)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JMU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)
JMU By 1-7 points
8.0%
JMU By 8-14 points
18.6%
GAST By 1-7 points
1.7%
GAST By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
James Madison
81
JAMES MADISON
Georgia State
61
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
James Madison
JAMES MADISON
Georgia State
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dukes
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Dukes (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
JMU @ GAST
80 - 65
Feb 12, 2026
GAST @ JMU
79 - 81
Feb 20, 2025
GAST @ JMU
63 - 83
Jan 25, 2025
JMU @ GAST
86 - 79
Feb 28, 2024
JMU @ GAST
84 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.5%
James Madison: 44.3%
vs
Georgia State: 34.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.2%
James Madison: 34.9%
vs
Georgia State: 29.7%
Steals (L5)
+37.5% more
Georgia State: 6.1
vs
James Madison: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.4%
Georgia State: 82.3%
vs
James Madison: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
JMU Score
81.0
80
GAST Score
61.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.7 / 34.9
38.0 / 13.0
Assists
10.8 / 10.7
9.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.0 / 3.0
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
34.7 / 44.3
41.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
82.3 / 69.9
83.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
37.7 / 38.3
20.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.1 / 4.4
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 9.0
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
GAST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
GAST
Advantage
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +3.4
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
JMU
GAST
JMU
ML
56%
18-14
64%
21-12
71%
22-9
66%
21-11
ATS
59%
19-13
67%
22-11
71%
22-9
66%
21-11
TTL
59%
19-13
67%
22-11
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
