TEXAS SOUTHERN
TIGERSTXSO
12-18 | Road
83
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
GOLDEN LIONSUAPB
13-19 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
60%
GOLDEN LIONS
40%
TIGERS
--
GOLDEN LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Arkansas-Pine Bluff)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UAPB -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAPB)
TXSO By 1-7 points
0.1%
TXSO By 8-14 points
0.0%
UAPB By 1-7 points
1.4%
UAPB By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas Southern
52
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
81
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Simulated Score
Texas Southern
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Lions
Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 19, 2026
TXSO @ UAPB
83 - 64
Jan 10, 2026
UAPB @ TXSO
74 - 66
Feb 24, 2025
UAPB @ TXSO
56 - 81
Feb 4, 2025
TXSO @ UAPB
68 - 69
Feb 26, 2024
TXSO @ UAPB
77 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+16.1% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 13.6
vs
Texas Southern: 11.7
Steals (L5)
+18.6% more
Texas Southern: 7.9
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 6.4
Turnovers (L5)
+12.5% more
Texas Southern: 14.0
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 12.3
Rebounding (L5)
+10.1% more
Texas Southern: 35.4
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 31.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TXSO Score
52.0
83
UAPB Score
81.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 38.0
30.0 / 35.0
Assists
13.6 / 11.7
14.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.7 / 2.7
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 47.2
36.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
75.0 / 74.7
63.0 / 89.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 35.4
35.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.4 / 7.9
4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 14.0
12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXSO
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
UAPB
Advantage
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXSO
9-19-0
(32.1%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
UAPB
Advantage
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.3
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAPB
TXSO
UAPB
TXSO
ML
74%
23-8
64%
18-10
73%
19-7
71%
17-7
ATS
73%
22-8-1
61%
17-11
73%
19-7
71%
17-7
TTL
68%
21-10
71%
20-8
100%
26-0
100%
24-0
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