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TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

23-10  |  Road

73
FINAL
Thu, Feb 12 • 4:00 PM ET
Liberty Arena (IN)
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN INDIANA

SCREAMING EAGLESUSI

7-23  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
75%
📊
SCREAMING EAGLES
25%
TIGERS --
SCREAMING EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-56.0
SOUTHERN INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +56.0 points (Southern Indiana)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 Screaming EaglesUSI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

0.0%

Screaming Eagles Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USI -56.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USI)

TNST By 1-7 points

0.0%

TNST By 8-14 points

0.0%

USI By 1-7 points

0.0%

USI By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
41
TENNESSEE STATE
97
SOUTHERN INDIANA
Simulated Score
TENNESSEE STATE
SOUTHERN INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Screaming Eagles Loss
25% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Screaming Eagles (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -56.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 TNST @ USI 73 - 71
Jan 17, 2026 USI @ TNST 67 - 73
Mar 1, 2025 USI @ TNST 69 - 74
Dec 19, 2024 TNST @ USI 75 - 77
Mar 6, 2024 USI @ TNST 64 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +40.1% more
Southern Indiana: 12.7 vs Tennessee State: 9.1
Assists (L5) +39.3% more
Tennessee State: 14.2 vs Southern Indiana: 8.6
Blocks (L5) +17.4% more
Tennessee State: 3.3 vs Southern Indiana: 2.8
Steals (L5) +16.4% more
Tennessee State: 7.1 vs Southern Indiana: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 41.0 73
USI Score 97.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.6 / 26.7 27.0 / 45.0
Assists 8.6 / 14.2 7.0 / 6.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.3 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 33.6 / 48.8 48.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 69.7 / 79.8 44.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 35.5 36.0 / 40.0
Steals 5.9 / 7.1 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 9.1 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
USI
7-23-0 (23.3%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
USI
11-16-1 (40.7%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
USI
11-17-0
O: 39.3% / U: 60.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USI
TNST
USI
TNST
ML
67% 20-10
52% 16-15
61% 17-11
63% 17-10
ATS
70% 21-9
68% 21-10
61% 17-11
64% 18-10
TTL
73% 22-8
52% 16-15
100% 28-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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