OREGON
DUCKSORE
12-20 | Road
74
INDIANA
HOOSIERSIU
18-14 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
45%
HOOSIERS
55%
DUCKS
--
HOOSIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)
ORE By 1-7 points
0.6%
ORE By 8-14 points
0.1%
IU By 1-7 points
4.0%
IU By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Oregon
50
OREGON
Indiana
74
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Oregon
OREGON
Indiana
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hoosiers
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hoosiers (-10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
ORE @ IU
74 - 92
Mar 13, 2025
IU @ ORE
59 - 72
Mar 4, 2025
IU @ ORE
64 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+129.4% more
Indiana: 5.3
vs
Oregon: 2.3
Assists (L5)
+48.0% more
Indiana: 16.6
vs
Oregon: 11.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.7%
Indiana: 83.4%
vs
Oregon: 72.7%
Rebounding (L5)
+10.3% more
Indiana: 32.9
vs
Oregon: 29.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORE Score
50.0
74
IU Score
74.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.4 / 24.5
41.0 / 37.0
Assists
16.6 / 11.2
22.0 / 17.0
Blocks
5.3 / 2.3
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 40.8
60.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
83.4 / 72.7
78.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 29.8
29.0 / 25.0
Steals
4.2 / 6.7
0.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 11.1
9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
IU
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
IU
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
ORE
IU
ORE
ML
66%
21-11
56%
18-14
71%
22-9
62%
18-11
ATS
53%
17-15
56%
18-14
71%
22-9
62%
18-11
TTL
56%
18-14
59%
19-13
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
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