SAINT FRANCIS
RED FLASHSFPA
7-24 | Road
75
CHICAGO STATE
COUGARSCHST
7-25 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
RED FLASH
45%
COUGARS
55%
RED FLASH
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
CHICAGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Chicago State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHST -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHST)
SFPA By 1-7 points
16.9%
SFPA By 8-14 points
6.8%
CHST By 1-7 points
26.8%
CHST By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Francis
64
SAINT FRANCIS
Chicago State
70
CHICAGO STATE
Simulated Score
Saint Francis
SAINT FRANCIS
Chicago State
CHICAGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cougars
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cougars (-1)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.0
Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
SFPA @ CHST
75 - 80
Jan 23, 2026
CHST @ SFPA
60 - 81
Mar 1, 2025
CHST @ SFPA
71 - 80
Feb 8, 2025
SFPA @ CHST
81 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.0%
Chicago State: 74.9%
vs
Saint Francis: 67.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+44.2% more
Saint Francis: 11.9
vs
Chicago State: 6.6
Steals (L5)
+26.4% more
Saint Francis: 9.0
vs
Chicago State: 6.7
Assists (L5)
+20.8% more
Saint Francis: 15.3
vs
Chicago State: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFPA Score
64.0
75
CHST Score
70.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.8 / 44.2
29.0 / 20.0
Assists
12.1 / 15.3
11.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.3 / 1.6
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 45.1
44.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
74.9 / 67.9
79.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
29.9 / 30.8
36.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.7 / 9.0
12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
6.6 / 11.9
13.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFPA
Advantage
7-24-0
(22.6%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -1.7
CHST
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFPA
13-15-1
(46.4%)
Margin: -9.5
ATS +/-: -1.7
CHST
Advantage
15-15-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -10.3
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +5.8
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHST
SFPA
CHST
SFPA
ML
75%
24-8
68%
21-10
73%
22-8
67%
20-10
ATS
69%
22-10
68%
21-10
73%
22-8
67%
20-10
TTL
44%
14-18
58%
18-13
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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