Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Tigers ALST @ GRAM

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

10-22  |  Road

47
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 12:30 PM ET
Fredrick C. Hobdy Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

GRAMBLING

TIGERSGRAM

14-19  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
30%
📊
TIGERS
70%
HORNETS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
GRAMBLING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Grambling)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 TigersGRAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

1.8%

Tigers Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GRAM -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GRAM)

ALST By 1-7 points

1.4%

ALST By 8-14 points

0.2%

GRAM By 1-7 points

6.8%

GRAM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
59
ALABAMA STATE
80
GRAMBLING
Simulated Score
ALABAMA STATE
GRAMBLING
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 GRAM @ ALST 65 - 63
Feb 7, 2026 ALST @ GRAM 47 - 57
Mar 14, 2025 GRAM @ ALST 62 - 64
Mar 8, 2025 ALST @ GRAM 59 - 47
Feb 8, 2025 GRAM @ ALST 77 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +15.3% more
Grambling: 37.7 vs Alabama State: 32.7
Free Throw % (L5) +2.9%
Grambling: 73.4% vs Alabama State: 70.5%
Blocks (L5) +60.8% more
Alabama State: 4.2 vs Grambling: 1.7
Steals (L5) +32.2% more
Alabama State: 9.3 vs Grambling: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 59.0 47
GRAM Score 80.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.2 / 33.0 32.0 / 23.0
Assists 12.5 / 12.7 8.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.7 / 4.2 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 42.8 35.0 / 27.0
Free Throw % 73.4 / 70.5 72.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 32.7 40.0 / 45.0
Steals 6.3 / 9.3 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 15.4 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
GRAM Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
GRAM Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GRAM
ALST
GRAM
ALST
ML
68% 21-10
65% 20-11
68% 17-8
76% 19-6
ATS
61% 19-12
65% 20-11
68% 17-8
76% 19-6
TTL
58% 18-13
52% 16-15
100% 25-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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