Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Trojans LIN @ LR

LINDENWOOD

LIONSLIN

18-15  |  Road

79
FINAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 3:25 PM ET
Jack Stephens Center
View Odds Details →

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

12-20  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
80%
📊
TROJANS
20%
LIONS --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Little Rock)
LionsLIN (-3.5) 0 TrojansLR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

42.1%

Trojans Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)

LIN By 1-7 points

23.0%

LIN By 8-14 points

12.2%

LR By 1-7 points

26.8%

LR By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
75
LINDENWOOD
77
LITTLE ROCK
Simulated Score
LINDENWOOD
LITTLE ROCK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Loss
20% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 LR @ LIN 62 - 72
Feb 5, 2026 LIN @ LR 79 - 74
Jan 10, 2026 LR @ LIN 82 - 74
Feb 20, 2025 LIN @ LR 93 - 92
Jan 25, 2025 LR @ LIN 78 - 46
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.6%
Little Rock: 76.9% vs Lindenwood: 69.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Little Rock: 32.7% vs Lindenwood: 30.7%
Rebounding (L5) +22.5% more
Lindenwood: 38.3 vs Little Rock: 29.7
Turnovers (L5) +18.3% more
Lindenwood: 15.2 vs Little Rock: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIN Score 75.0 79
LR Score 77.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.7 / 30.7 21.0 / 53.0
Assists 12.7 / 13.0 12.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.4 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 43.8 44.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 69.3 72.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 29.7 / 38.3 37.0 / 41.0
Steals 9.3 / 9.5 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 15.2 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIN Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIN Advantage
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LIN
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: -0.8
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LR
LIN
LR
LIN
ML
52% 16-15
47% 15-17
68% 17-8
61% 19-12
ATS
45% 14-17
34% 11-21
68% 17-8
61% 19-12
TTL
58% 18-13
53% 17-15
100% 25-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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