Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Lions @ Tigers UAPB @ GRAM

ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

GOLDEN LIONSUAPB

13-19  |  Road

67
FINAL
Wed, Feb 4 • 2:30 PM ET
Fredrick C. Hobdy Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

GRAMBLING

TIGERSGRAM

14-19  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
60%
📊
TIGERS
40%
GOLDEN LIONS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Arkansas-Pine Bluff)
Golden LionsUAPB (-3.5) 0 TigersGRAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Lions Cover

81.6%

Tigers Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UAPB -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAPB)

UAPB By 1-7 points

24.3%

UAPB By 8-14 points

26.8%

GRAM By 1-7 points

12.2%

GRAM By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
67
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
58
GRAMBLING
Simulated Score
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
GRAMBLING
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Lions Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Lions (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 UAPB @ GRAM 67 - 64
Jan 27, 2025 GRAM @ UAPB 81 - 77
Jan 29, 2024 UAPB @ GRAM 86 - 70
Jan 23, 2023 GRAM @ UAPB 77 - 70
Jan 24, 2022 UAPB @ GRAM 65 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +23.8% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 2.6 vs Grambling: 2.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 37.2% vs Grambling: 33.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 45.8% vs Grambling: 44.2%
Rebounding (L5) +17.6% more
Grambling: 36.6 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 31.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score 67.0 67
GRAM Score 58.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 37.2 12.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.2 / 13.9 7.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.6 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 45.8 39.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 72.1 73.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 31.1 40.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.0 / 6.8 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 12.7 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
GRAM Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
GRAM Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -0.2
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GRAM
UAPB
GRAM
UAPB
ML
68% 21-10
74% 23-8
68% 17-8
73% 19-7
ATS
61% 19-12
73% 22-8-1
68% 17-8
73% 19-7
TTL
58% 18-13
68% 21-10
100% 25-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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