Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Braves GRAM @ ALCN

GRAMBLING

TIGERSGRAM

14-19  |  Road

74
FINAL
Mon, Feb 2 • 3:25 PM ET
Davey L. Whitney Complex
View Odds Details →

ALCORN STATE

BRAVESALCN

9-23  |  Home

50
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
60%
📊
BRAVES
40%
TIGERS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
GRAMBLING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Grambling)
TigersGRAM (-3.5) 0 BravesALCN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

99.7%

Braves Cover

0.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GRAM -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GRAM)

GRAM By 1-7 points

2.2%

GRAM By 8-14 points

8.0%

ALCN By 1-7 points

0.3%

ALCN By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
103
GRAMBLING
76
ALCORN STATE
Simulated Score
GRAMBLING
ALCORN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 179.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 GRAM @ ALCN 74 - 50
Feb 3, 2025 ALCN @ GRAM 60 - 53
Feb 5, 2024 GRAM @ ALCN 78 - 67
Jan 30, 2023 ALCN @ GRAM 63 - 60
Jan 31, 2022 GRAM @ ALCN 80 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +19.6% more
Grambling: 2.0 vs Alcorn State: 1.6
Turnovers (L5) +15.4% more
Grambling: 15.6 vs Alcorn State: 13.2
Steals (L5) +13.6% more
Grambling: 7.5 vs Alcorn State: 6.4
Rebounding (L5) +9.8% more
Grambling: 35.4 vs Alcorn State: 31.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GRAM Score 103.0 74
ALCN Score 76.0 50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 30.9 24.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.6 / 11.3 10.0 / 23.0
Blocks 1.6 / 2.0 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 40.7 33.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 73.0 63.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 35.4 26.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.5 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 15.6 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GRAM Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
ALCN
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GRAM
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
ALCN Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -4.0
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALCN
GRAM
ALCN
GRAM
ML
66% 21-11
68% 21-10
75% 18-6
68% 17-8
ATS
68% 21-10-1
61% 19-12
75% 18-6
68% 17-8
TTL
47% 15-17
58% 18-13
100% 24-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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