Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Bearkats LT @ SHSU

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

20-14  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 5:05 PM ET
Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum
View Odds Details →

SAM HOUSTON

BEARKATSSHSU

22-12  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
45%
📊
BEARKATS
55%
BULLDOGS --
BEARKATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Sam Houston)
BulldogsLT (-3.5) 0 BearkatsSHSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

0.5%

Bearkats Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SHSU -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

LT By 1-7 points

0.4%

LT By 8-14 points

0.0%

SHSU By 1-7 points

2.7%

SHSU By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
56
LOUISIANA TECH
82
SAM HOUSTON
Simulated Score
LOUISIANA TECH
SAM HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bearkats Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bearkats (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 SHSU @ LT 78 - 87
Jan 31, 2026 LT @ SHSU 67 - 83
Mar 1, 2025 LT @ SHSU 90 - 66
Feb 1, 2025 SHSU @ LT 61 - 66
Mar 7, 2024 SHSU @ LT 72 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +66.2% more
Sam Houston: 17.1 vs Louisiana Tech: 10.3
Steals (L5) +25.3% more
Sam Houston: 7.5 vs Louisiana Tech: 6.0
Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Sam Houston: 51.1% vs Louisiana Tech: 44.0%
Blocks (L5) +34.4% more
Louisiana Tech: 4.3 vs Sam Houston: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LT Score 56.0 67
SHSU Score 82.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 36.1 36.0 / 28.0
Assists 17.1 / 10.3 7.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.3 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 51.1 / 44.0 49.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 63.0 / 73.5 67.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 37.1 35.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.5 / 6.0 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 12.0 6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LT
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
SHSU Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LT
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
SHSU Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
LT
SHSU
LT
ML
55% 18-15
58% 19-14
74% 23-8
72% 23-9
ATS
64% 21-12
61% 20-13
74% 23-8
72% 23-9
TTL
48% 16-17
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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