Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulls @ Owls USF @ TEM

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

25-9  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 3:05 PM ET
Liacouras Center
View Odds Details →

TEMPLE

OWLSTEM

16-16  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
50%
📊
OWLS
50%
BULLS --
OWLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
TEMPLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Temple)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 OwlsTEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

13.6%

Owls Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TEM -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEM)

USF By 1-7 points

9.3%

USF By 8-14 points

2.7%

TEM By 1-7 points

21.6%

TEM By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
62
SOUTH FLORIDA
73
TEMPLE
Simulated Score
SOUTH FLORIDA
TEMPLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Owls Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Owls (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 USF @ TEM 78 - 79
Feb 26, 2025 USF @ TEM 71 - 73
Feb 6, 2025 TEM @ USF 91 - 100
Jan 24, 2024 USF @ TEM 75 - 69
Jan 4, 2024 TEM @ USF 68 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +12.2%
Temple: 82.8% vs South Florida: 70.6%
Rebounding (L5) +30.3% more
South Florida: 46.3 vs Temple: 32.3
Assists (L5) +29.0% more
South Florida: 17.4 vs Temple: 12.3
Turnovers (L5) +23.7% more
South Florida: 11.2 vs Temple: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 62.0 78
TEM Score 73.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.6 / 33.8 31.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.3 / 17.4 19.0 / 16.0
Blocks 5.1 / 5.5 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.5 / 44.5 44.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 82.8 / 70.6 82.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 46.3 32.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.6 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.5 / 11.2 12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
TEM
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
TEM
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 3.2 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
TEM
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEM
USF
TEM
USF
ML
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
67% 20-10
52% 16-15
ATS
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
67% 20-10
52% 16-15
TTL
69% 22-10
52% 17-16
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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