Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinal @ Seminoles STAN @ FSU

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

20-13  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 1:05 PM ET
Tucker Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

18-15  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINAL
80%
📊
SEMINOLES
20%
CARDINAL --
SEMINOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Florida State)
CardinalSTAN (-3.5) 0 SeminolesFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinal Cover

4.5%

Seminoles Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

STAN By 1-7 points

3.3%

STAN By 8-14 points

0.6%

FSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

FSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
66
STANFORD
83
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
STANFORD
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Seminoles Win
20% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Seminoles (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 STAN @ FSU 80 - 88
Jan 25, 2025 FSU @ STAN 71 - 78
Nov 25, 2022 FSU @ STAN 60 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.8% more
Florida State: 3.6 vs Stanford: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +18.4% more
Florida State: 38.6 vs Stanford: 32.6
Turnovers (L5) +13.8% more
Stanford: 11.8 vs Florida State: 10.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.8%
Stanford: 34.7% vs Florida State: 27.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 66.0 80
FSU Score 83.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.9 / 34.7 30.0 / 35.0
Assists 12.6 / 12.4 18.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.5 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 40.7 / 39.2 55.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 65.8 / 64.3 79.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 38.6 / 32.6 31.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.4 / 6.2 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 11.8 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
STAN
FSU
STAN
ML
64% 21-12
48% 16-17
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
ATS
55% 18-15
48% 16-17
59% 19-13
50% 16-16
TTL
48% 16-17
55% 18-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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