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CHICAGO STATE

COUGARSCHST

7-25  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sun, Jan 25 • 10:00 AM ET
Mercyhurst Athletic Center
View Odds Details →

MERCYHURST

LAKERSMERC

17-17  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
45%
📊
LAKERS
55%
COUGARS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 85%
Under 0 15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MERCYHURST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Mercyhurst)
CougarsCHST (-3.5) 0 LakersMERC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

13.6%

Lakers Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MERC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MERC)

CHST By 1-7 points

9.3%

CHST By 8-14 points

2.7%

MERC By 1-7 points

21.6%

MERC By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
55
CHICAGO STATE
66
MERCYHURST
Simulated Score
CHICAGO STATE
MERCYHURST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u130.5 Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 MERC @ CHST 74 - 78
Jan 25, 2026 CHST @ MERC 59 - 61
Feb 27, 2025 CHST @ MERC 68 - 90
Feb 6, 2025 MERC @ CHST 78 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +302.0% more
Mercyhurst: 3.9 vs Chicago State: 0.9
Assists (L5) +41.1% more
Mercyhurst: 15.3 vs Chicago State: 10.8
Free Throw % (L5) +21.8%
Mercyhurst: 85.3% vs Chicago State: 63.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.7%
Mercyhurst: 47.4% vs Chicago State: 39.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHST Score 55.0 59
MERC Score 66.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 34.3 40.0 / 39.0
Assists 15.3 / 10.8 19.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.9 / 0.9 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 39.7 46.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 85.3 / 63.5 71.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 29.8 / 28.6 32.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.3 / 7.4 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 11.3 12.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHST
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
MERC Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHST
15-15-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
MERC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MERC
CHST
MERC
CHST
ML
59% 20-14
75% 24-8
79% 26-7
73% 22-8
ATS
62% 21-13
69% 22-10
79% 26-7
73% 22-8
TTL
53% 18-16
44% 14-18
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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