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GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

31-4  |  Road

86
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 5:15 PM ET
Beasley Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

COUGARSWSU

12-20  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
70%
📊
COUGARS
30%
BULLDOGS --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
104.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (Gonzaga)
BulldogsGONZ (-3.5) 0 CougarsWSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

99.9%

Cougars Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GONZ -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)

GONZ By 1-7 points

1.1%

GONZ By 8-14 points

4.8%

WSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

WSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
67
GONZAGA
37
WASHINGTON STATE
Simulated Score
GONZAGA
WASHINGTON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
70% Win Prob
B
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 104.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 10, 2026 WSU @ GONZ 53 - 83
Jan 15, 2026 GONZ @ WSU 86 - 65
Feb 19, 2025 GONZ @ WSU 84 - 63
Jan 11, 2025 WSU @ GONZ 75 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.8% more
Gonzaga: 7.2 vs Washington State: 5.1
Assists (L5) +25.1% more
Gonzaga: 18.9 vs Washington State: 14.2
Blocks (L5) +16.1% more
Gonzaga: 3.2 vs Washington State: 2.7
Rebounding (L5) +11.7% more
Gonzaga: 40.3 vs Washington State: 35.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GONZ Score 67.0 86
WSU Score 37.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 36.3 46.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.2 / 18.9 10.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.2 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 54.6 40.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 63.2 50.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 40.3 29.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.1 / 7.2 6.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 11.2 17.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
WSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
WSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
WSU
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
GONZ
WSU
GONZ
ML
78% 25-7
71% 25-10
69% 20-9
69% 20-9
ATS
78% 25-7
69% 24-11
69% 20-9
69% 20-9
TTL
62% 20-12
57% 20-15
100% 29-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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