TCU
HORNED FROGSTCU
23-12 | Road
70
BYU
COUGARSBYU
23-12 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
40%
COUGARS
60%
HORNED FROGS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
25%
Under 0
75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (BYU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BYU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)
TCU By 1-7 points
16.9%
TCU By 8-14 points
6.8%
BYU By 1-7 points
26.8%
BYU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
TCU
64
TCU
BYU
70
BYU
Simulated Score
TCU
TCU
BYU
BYU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cougars
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cougars (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 14, 2026
TCU @ BYU
70 - 76
Jan 11, 2025
BYU @ TCU
67 - 71
Mar 2, 2024
TCU @ BYU
75 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.3% more
BYU: 8.5
vs
TCU: 6.6
Turnovers (L5)
+11.4% more
BYU: 13.4
vs
TCU: 12.0
Rebounding (L5)
+9.1% more
BYU: 41.1
vs
TCU: 37.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
BYU: 51.7%
vs
TCU: 45.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TCU Score
64.0
70
BYU Score
70.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 35.8
21.0 / 30.0
Assists
17.6 / 17.2
11.0 / 16.0
Blocks
6.0 / 6.7
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.7 / 45.4
35.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
73.0 / 71.8
79.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
41.1 / 37.7
51.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.5 / 6.6
5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 12.0
9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
BYU
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
BYU
16-19-0
(45.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
BYU
17-18-0
O: 48.6% / U: 51.4%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
TCU
BYU
TCU
ML
60%
21-14
74%
26-9
72%
23-9
63%
19-11
ATS
54%
19-16
74%
26-9
72%
23-9
63%
19-11
TTL
69%
24-11
66%
23-12
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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