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DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

35-3  |  Road

71
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 6:10 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

22-12  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
40%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
60%
BLUE DEVILS --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Blue DevilsDUKE (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Devils Cover

38.2%

Golden Bears Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CAL +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

DUKE By 1-7 points

27.2%

DUKE By 8-14 points

20.1%

CAL By 1-7 points

21.6%

CAL By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
74
DUKE
71
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
DUKE
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Devils Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Bears (+14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 14, 2026 DUKE @ CAL 71 - 56
Feb 12, 2025 CAL @ DUKE 57 - 78
Nov 21, 2019 DUKE @ CAL 87 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +36.9% more
Duke: 10.4 vs California: 6.6
Turnovers (L5) +29.1% more
Duke: 13.0 vs California: 9.2
Assists (L5) +16.5% more
Duke: 15.9 vs California: 13.3
Field Goal % (L5) +7.9%
Duke: 49.4% vs California: 41.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 74.0 71
CAL Score 71.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.2 / 36.6 22.0 / 22.0
Assists 13.3 / 15.9 9.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.8 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 49.4 37.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 84.2 / 74.7 76.0 / 47.0
Rebounding 31.1 / 32.9 30.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.6 / 10.4 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 13.0 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
CAL
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
CAL
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
DUKE
CAL
DUKE
ML
61% 20-13
71% 27-11
77% 24-7
73% 24-9
ATS
64% 21-12
79% 30-8
78% 25-7
73% 24-9
TTL
70% 23-10
47% 18-20
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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