Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Lions @ Tigers UAPB @ TXSO

ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

GOLDEN LIONSUAPB

13-19  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Jan 10 • 12:30 PM ET
H&PE Arena
View Odds Details →

TEXAS SOUTHERN

TIGERSTXSO

12-18  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
75%
📊
TIGERS
25%
GOLDEN LIONS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Golden LionsUAPB (-3.5) 0 TigersTXSO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Lions Cover

46.0%

Tigers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TXSO +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXSO)

UAPB By 1-7 points

26.2%

UAPB By 8-14 points

16.9%

TXSO By 1-7 points

24.3%

TXSO By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
77
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
76
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Lions Win
75% Win Prob
B
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u169.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 TXSO @ UAPB 83 - 64
Jan 10, 2026 UAPB @ TXSO 74 - 66
Feb 24, 2025 UAPB @ TXSO 56 - 81
Feb 4, 2025 TXSO @ UAPB 68 - 69
Feb 26, 2024 TXSO @ UAPB 77 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +53.3% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 22.0 vs Texas Southern: 10.3
Rebounding (L5) +19.8% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 40.3 vs Texas Southern: 32.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +18.1%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 46.1% vs Texas Southern: 28.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +8.0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 51.1% vs Texas Southern: 43.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score 77.0 74
TXSO Score 76.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.0 / 46.1 14.0 / 35.0
Assists 10.3 / 22.0 7.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.2 / 2.7 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 51.1 41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 80.2 / 79.1 70.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 40.3 34.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.5 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.0 / 13.9 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
TXSO
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB Advantage
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
TXSO
9-19-0 (32.1%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -0.2
TXSO
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXSO
UAPB
TXSO
UAPB
ML
64% 18-10
74% 23-8
71% 17-7
73% 19-7
ATS
61% 17-11
73% 22-8-1
71% 17-7
73% 19-7
TTL
71% 20-8
68% 21-10
100% 24-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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