Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warhawks @ Ragin' Cajuns ULM @ UL

UL MONROE

WARHAWKSULM

4-28  |  Road

79
FINAL
Thu, Jan 8 • 3:57 PM ET
Cajundome
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

11-22  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
WARHAWKS
55%
📊
RAGIN' CAJUNS
45%
WARHAWKS --
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (UL Monroe)
WarhawksULM (-3.5) 0 Ragin' CajunsUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warhawks Cover

98.9%

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ULM -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)

ULM By 1-7 points

4.8%

ULM By 8-14 points

13.7%

UL By 1-7 points

0.8%

UL By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
82
UL MONROE
59
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
UL MONROE
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warhawks Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warhawks (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 8, 2026 ULM @ UL 79 - 85
Dec 20, 2025 UL @ ULM 76 - 62
Mar 4, 2025 ULM @ UL 69 - 73
Jan 18, 2025 UL @ ULM 65 - 60
Jan 11, 2025 ULM @ UL 68 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.8% more
UL Monroe: 7.3 vs Louisiana: 5.1
Turnovers (L5) +24.2% more
UL Monroe: 14.0 vs Louisiana: 10.6
Blocks (L5) +23.2% more
UL Monroe: 4.7 vs Louisiana: 3.6
Assists (L5) +8.4% more
UL Monroe: 13.7 vs Louisiana: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 82.0 79
UL Score 59.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 40.5 33.0 / 54.0
Assists 12.6 / 13.7 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.7 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 45.1 49.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 70.8 / 70.0 53.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 28.8 / 28.0 40.0 / 23.0
Steals 5.1 / 7.3 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 14.0 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
10%MONEY90%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
4-28-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
UL Advantage
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0% Total +/-: +5.8
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
ULM
UL
ULM
ML
66% 21-11
50% 16-16
63% 19-11
70% 21-9
ATS
66% 21-11
78% 25-7
63% 19-11
70% 21-9
TTL
62% 20-12
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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