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TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

23-10  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 11:30 AM ET
Jack Stephens Center
View Odds Details →

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

12-20  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
70%
📊
TROJANS
30%
TIGERS --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 25%
Under 0 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Tennessee State)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 TrojansLR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

99.9%

Trojans Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TNST -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)

TNST By 1-7 points

0.6%

TNST By 8-14 points

3.3%

LR By 1-7 points

0.1%

LR By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
93
TENNESSEE STATE
61
LITTLE ROCK
Simulated Score
TENNESSEE STATE
LITTLE ROCK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
70% Win Prob
B
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 29, 2026 LR @ TNST 63 - 70
Jan 3, 2026 TNST @ LR 84 - 79
Jan 30, 2025 TNST @ LR 72 - 70
Jan 4, 2025 LR @ TNST 86 - 95
Feb 29, 2024 TNST @ LR 60 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +15.1% more
Tennessee State: 10.5 vs Little Rock: 8.9
Free Throw % (L5) +10.9%
Tennessee State: 74.4% vs Little Rock: 63.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Tennessee State: 38.4% vs Little Rock: 33.4%
Blocks (L5) +77.2% more
Little Rock: 5.5 vs Tennessee State: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 93.0 84
LR Score 61.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 38.4 33.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.7 / 14.9 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 5.5 / 3.1 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 45.5 44.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 63.5 / 74.4 72.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 33.0 / 34.4 39.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.9 / 10.5 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 11.8 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LR
TNST
LR
TNST
ML
52% 16-15
52% 16-15
68% 17-8
63% 17-10
ATS
45% 14-17
68% 21-10
68% 17-8
64% 18-10
TTL
58% 18-13
52% 16-15
100% 25-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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