Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Braves @ Tigers ALCN @ JKST

ALCORN STATE

BRAVESALCN

9-23  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sat, Jan 3 • 11:30 AM ET
Lee E. Williams Athletics and Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

JACKSON STATE

TIGERSJKST

12-21  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
55%
📊
TIGERS
45%
BRAVES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
ALCORN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Alcorn State)
BravesALCN (-3.5) 0 TigersJKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

100.0%

Tigers Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALCN -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALCN)

ALCN By 1-7 points

0.1%

ALCN By 8-14 points

0.5%

JKST By 1-7 points

0.0%

JKST By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
98
ALCORN STATE
58
JACKSON STATE
Simulated Score
ALCORN STATE
JACKSON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.0 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 JKST @ ALCN 65 - 83
Jan 3, 2026 ALCN @ JKST 86 - 89
Feb 22, 2025 ALCN @ JKST 63 - 71
Jan 4, 2025 JKST @ ALCN 72 - 69
Feb 24, 2024 JKST @ ALCN 73 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.4% more
Alcorn State: 8.1 vs Jackson State: 5.0
Assists (L5) +37.9% more
Jackson State: 12.6 vs Alcorn State: 9.1
Blocks (L5) +25.9% more
Jackson State: 2.9 vs Alcorn State: 2.3
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Jackson State: 38.9% vs Alcorn State: 34.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALCN Score 98.0 86
JKST Score 58.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 31.2 37.0 / 54.0
Assists 12.6 / 9.1 16.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.3 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 38.9 / 34.9 53.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 71.7 / 70.4 84.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 28.9 / 27.8 32.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.0 / 8.1 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.9 / 15.5 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALCN
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
JKST Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALCN Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.8
JKST
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
JKST
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JKST
ALCN
JKST
ALCN
ML
77% 24-7
66% 21-11
73% 19-7
75% 18-6
ATS
77% 24-7
68% 21-10-1
73% 19-7
75% 18-6
TTL
58% 18-13
47% 15-17
100% 26-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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