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TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

23-10  |  Road

88
FINAL
Tue, Dec 30 • 3:55 PM ET
Hooper Eblen Center
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE TECH

GOLDEN EAGLESTNTC

13-18  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
55%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
45%
TIGERS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
TENNESSEE TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Tennessee Tech)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesTNTC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

15.9%

Golden Eagles Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TNTC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNTC)

TNST By 1-7 points

10.7%

TNST By 8-14 points

3.3%

TNTC By 1-7 points

23.0%

TNTC By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
84
TENNESSEE STATE
94
TENNESSEE TECH
Simulated Score
TENNESSEE STATE
TENNESSEE TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Win
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 TNTC @ TNST 90 - 85
Dec 30, 2025 TNST @ TNTC 88 - 76
Feb 22, 2025 TNST @ TNTC 74 - 77
Jan 23, 2025 TNTC @ TNST 77 - 89
Feb 13, 2024 TNST @ TNTC 50 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +35.7% more
Tennessee Tech: 14.0 vs Tennessee State: 10.3
Turnovers (L5) +11.8% more
Tennessee Tech: 13.7 vs Tennessee State: 12.3
Free Throw % (L5) +8.0%
Tennessee Tech: 76.6% vs Tennessee State: 68.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Tennessee Tech: 36.9% vs Tennessee State: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 84.0 88
TNTC Score 94.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 30.5 33.0 / 54.0
Assists 14.0 / 10.3 20.0 / 24.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.2 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 43.8 53.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 76.6 / 68.6 69.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 34.3 / 34.1 30.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.6 / 9.3 7.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 12.3 15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
TNTC
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
TNTC
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
TNTC
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNTC
TNST
TNTC
TNST
ML
50% 15-15
52% 16-15
65% 15-8
63% 17-10
ATS
50% 15-15
68% 21-10
65% 15-8
64% 18-10
TTL
57% 17-13
52% 16-15
100% 23-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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