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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

0-0  |  Road

116
FINAL
Thu, Dec 25 • 12:17 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

37-45  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
55%
📊
WARRIORS
45%
MAVERICKS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 25%
Under 0 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Golden State)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

42.1%

Warriors Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

DAL By 1-7 points

23.0%

DAL By 8-14 points

12.2%

GS By 1-7 points

26.8%

GS By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
113
DALLAS
115
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
DALLAS
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u229.5 Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 GS @ DAL 137 - 131
Jan 22, 2026 GS @ DAL 115 - 123
Dec 25, 2025 DAL @ GS 116 - 126
Feb 23, 2025 DAL @ GS 102 - 126
Feb 12, 2025 GS @ DAL 107 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +18.4% more
Golden State: 9.1 vs Dallas: 7.7
Turnovers (L5) +14.4% more
Golden State: 16.6 vs Dallas: 14.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Golden State: 34.4% vs Dallas: 32.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Dallas: 51.2% vs Golden State: 47.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 113.0 116
GS Score 115.0 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 32.0 28.0 / 29.0
Assists 30.1 / 28.8 33.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.2 / 5.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 51.2 44.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 79.8 92.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 47.1 / 44.9 49.0 / 41.0
Steals 9.1 / 7.7 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 16.6 / 14.5 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
DAL
GS
DAL
ML
55% 95-79
62% 63-39
58% 49-35
54% 44-37
ATS
58% 101-73
67% 68-34
58% 49-35
54% 44-37
TTL
77% 134-40
59% 60-41-1
100% 84-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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