Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tar Heels @ Buckeyes UNC @ OSU

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

24-9  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 10:26 AM ET
State Farm Arena
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

21-13  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
TAR HEELS
70%
📊
BUCKEYES
30%
TAR HEELS --
BUCKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Ohio State)
Tar HeelsUNC (-3.5) 0 BuckeyesOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tar Heels Cover

9.7%

Buckeyes Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OSU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

UNC By 1-7 points

6.8%

UNC By 8-14 points

1.7%

OSU By 1-7 points

18.6%

OSU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
67
NORTH CAROLINA
80
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
NORTH CAROLINA
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buckeyes Loss
30% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buckeyes (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 UNC @ OSU 71 - 70
Dec 17, 2022 OSU @ UNC 84 - 89
Dec 4, 2019 OSU @ UNC 74 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.6% more
Ohio State: 5.0 vs North Carolina: 3.9
Turnovers (L5) +23.7% more
Ohio State: 10.2 vs North Carolina: 8.3
Free Throw % (L5) +10.8%
Ohio State: 77.1% vs North Carolina: 66.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
North Carolina: 34.0% vs Ohio State: 28.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 67.0 71
OSU Score 80.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.1 / 34.0 20.0 / 30.0
Assists 16.7 / 16.8 17.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.9 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 49.3 40.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 66.3 84.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 38.4 39.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.0 / 3.9 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 8.3 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
OSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
OSU
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
UNC
OSU
UNC
ML
53% 18-16
76% 25-8
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
ATS
59% 20-14
73% 24-9
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
TTL
56% 19-15
55% 18-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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