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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

2-1-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 25 • 5:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

2-2-0  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
@
Morgan Rielly
GOALTENDER

Morgan Rielly

#44 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 3.90 0.826 --
Morgan Rielly None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.90 GAA --
0.826 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
57%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
43%
SABRES --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Buffalo)
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

93.3%

Maple Leafs Cover

6.7%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1 goal

12.1%

BUF By 2-3 goals

37.2%

TOR By 1 goal

2.8%

TOR By 2-3 goals

1.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
BUFFALO
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
BUFFALO
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sabres Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sabres (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Sim
Proj Goals:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 TOR @ BUF 2 - 3
Jan 27, 2026 BUF @ TOR 7 - 4
Oct 25, 2025 BUF @ TOR 3 - 4
Oct 24, 2025 TOR @ BUF 3 - 5
Apr 15, 2025 TOR @ BUF 4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +14.5% more
Buffalo: 17.3 vs Toronto: 14.8
Hits (L5) +60.5% more
Toronto: 25.8 vs Buffalo: 16.1
Takeaways (L5) +36.2% more
Toronto: 5.2 vs Buffalo: 3.8
Faceoff % (L5) +12.3%
Toronto: 55.4% vs Buffalo: 43.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 5.0 3
TOR Score 2.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 14.8 / 17.3 18.0 / 15.0
Faceoff % 55.4 / 43.1 66.7 / 33.3
Hits 25.8 / 16.1 25.0 / 20.0
Power Play % 17.1 / 16.1 0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal 29.5 / 30.5 23.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 5.2 / 3.8 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
86%MONEY14%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BUF
TOR
BUF
ML
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
TTL
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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