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CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

0-3-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Oct 28 • 6:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

2-2-0  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Dustin Wolf
GOALTENDER

Dustin Wolf

#32 | Goaltender
@
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dustin Wolf None-None 4.10 0.892 --
Anthony Stolarz None-None 3.00 0.897 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.10 GAA Ldr 3.00
0.892 Save % Ldr 0.897
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
40%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
60%
FLAMES --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
FlamesCGY (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

30.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

CGY By 1 goal

19.7%

CGY By 2-3 goals

29.6%

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
CALGARY
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
CALGARY
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Flames Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Maple Leafs (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Proj Goals:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 TOR @ CGY 4 - 2
Oct 28, 2025 CGY @ TOR 3 - 4
Mar 17, 2025 CGY @ TOR 2 - 6
Feb 4, 2025 TOR @ CGY 6 - 3
Jan 18, 2024 TOR @ CGY 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.8% more
Calgary: 31.0 vs Toronto: 27.3
Hits (L5) +29.7% more
Toronto: 25.5 vs Calgary: 19.7
Faceoff % (L5) +14.5%
Toronto: 59.2% vs Calgary: 44.6%
Blocked Shots (L5) +13.5% more
Toronto: 15.9 vs Calgary: 14.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CGY Score 3.0 3
TOR Score 2.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.9 / 14.0 15.0 / 10.0
Faceoff % 59.2 / 44.6 50.0 / 50.0
Hits 25.5 / 19.7 18.0 / 20.0
Power Play % 11.4 / 8.0 25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 27.3 / 31.0 37.0 / 29.0
Takeaways 4.1 / 3.9 8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CGY
TOR
CGY
ML
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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