TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
2-2-0 | Road
3
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
2-1-0 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 5.25 | 0.833 | -- |
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 3.00 | 0.912 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.25
GAA
Ldr 3.00
0.833
Save %
Ldr 0.912
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
45%
SABRES
55%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
BUF By 1 goal
19.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Toronto
TORONTO
Buffalo
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sabres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim
Proj Goals:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
TOR @ BUF
2 - 3
Jan 27, 2026
BUF @ TOR
7 - 4
Oct 25, 2025
BUF @ TOR
3 - 4
Oct 24, 2025
TOR @ BUF
3 - 5
Apr 15, 2025
TOR @ BUF
4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.7% more
Buffalo: 30.7
vs
Toronto: 27.2
Power Play % (L5)
+11.0%
Buffalo: 24.2%
vs
Toronto: 13.1%
Hits (L5)
+15.1% more
Toronto: 23.6
vs
Buffalo: 20.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+10.2%
Toronto: 53.9%
vs
Buffalo: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.0
3
BUF Score
3.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.4 / 15.7
21.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
43.8 / 53.9
41.7 / 58.3
Hits
20.1 / 23.6
8.0 / 30.0
Power Play %
24.2 / 13.1
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
30.7 / 27.2
30.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
4.2 / 4.3
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
TOR
BUF
TOR
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
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