NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
1-2-0 | Road
1
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
2-2-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 2.04 | 0.917 | -- |
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.04
GAA
--
0.917
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
ISLANDERS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around NYI -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
NYI By 1 goal
19.3%
NYI By 2-3 goals
25.1%
TOR By 1 goal
14.5%
TOR By 2-3 goals
12.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.59
NEW YORK
Toronto
3.01
TORONTO
Simulated Score
New York
NEW YORK
Toronto
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Islanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Islanders (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.6
D
Sim
Proj Goals:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
NYI @ TOR
1 - 2
Apr 9, 2026
TOR @ NYI
3 - 5
Mar 17, 2026
NYI @ TOR
3 - 1
Jan 3, 2026
TOR @ NYI
3 - 4
Jan 2, 2025
TOR @ NYI
2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+32.3% more
New York: 4.9
vs
Toronto: 3.3
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.0%
New York: 54.9%
vs
Toronto: 48.9%
Hits (L5)
+85.3% more
Toronto: 30.5
vs
New York: 16.5
Power Play % (L5)
+15.2%
Toronto: 16.6%
vs
New York: 1.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYI Score
3.6
1
TOR Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.4 / 12.2
15.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
48.9 / 54.9
46.3 / 53.7
Hits
30.5 / 16.5
22.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
16.6 / 1.4
25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.5 / 30.8
25.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
3.3 / 4.9
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NYI
TOR
NYI
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
4-0
100%
2-0-1
75%
3-1
100%
2-0-1
Contextual Game News
Joseph Woll's Strong Start in Philadelphia Has Maple Leafs Fans …
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Nashville Predators' Early Season: Three Burning Questions After…
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …