Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Warriors DEN @ GS

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

1-1  |  Road

131
FINAL
Thu, Oct 23 • 10:17 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

37-45  |  Home

137
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
50%
📊
WARRIORS
50%
NUGGETS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 25%
Under 0 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Golden State)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

6.7%

Warriors Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

DEN By 1-7 points

4.8%

DEN By 8-14 points

1.1%

GS By 1-7 points

15.3%

GS By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
104
DENVER
119
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
DENVER
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-2) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.0 Loss
Proj Total: 223.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 GS @ DEN 93 - 116
Feb 22, 2026 DEN @ GS 117 - 128
Nov 7, 2025 GS @ DEN 104 - 129
Oct 23, 2025 DEN @ GS 131 - 137
Apr 4, 2025 DEN @ GS 104 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.4% more
Golden State: 20.6 vs Denver: 16.7
Assists (L5) +18.2% more
Golden State: 28.4 vs Denver: 24.0
Steals (L5) +18.1% more
Golden State: 9.3 vs Denver: 7.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Golden State: 38.1% vs Denver: 32.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 104.0 131
GS Score 119.0 137
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 32.5 38.3 / 40.0
Assists 28.4 / 24.0 33.0 / 32.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.8 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 46.7 50.5 / 53.7
Free Throw % 81.2 / 79.0 76.0 / 92.9
Rebounding 42.8 / 42.7 43.0 / 43.0
Steals 9.3 / 7.9 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 20.6 / 16.7 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
DEN
GS
DEN
ML
55% 95-79
54% 57-48
58% 49-35
55% 47-39
ATS
58% 101-73
63% 65-38-2
58% 49-35
55% 47-39
TTL
77% 134-40
54% 56-48-1
100% 84-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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