HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
0-0 | Road
133
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
0-1 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
33%
HAWKS
67%
ROCKETS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
HOU By 1-7 points
22.6%
HOU By 8-14 points
11.7%
ATL By 1-7 points
27.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
110.35
HOUSTON
Atlanta
112.65
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Houston
HOUSTON
Atlanta
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
ATL @ HOU
95 - 117
Jan 29, 2026
HOU @ ATL
104 - 86
Oct 16, 2025
HOU @ ATL
133 - 115
Oct 6, 2025
ATL @ HOU
113 - 122
Mar 25, 2025
ATL @ HOU
114 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+21.8% more
Atlanta: 7.5
vs
Houston: 6.1
Steals (L5)
+16.2% more
Atlanta: 9.7
vs
Houston: 8.4
Assists (L5)
+9.7% more
Atlanta: 27.5
vs
Houston: 25.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.9%
Houston: 36.1%
vs
Atlanta: 29.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
110.4
133
ATL Score
112.7
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.2 / 36.1
27.8 / 39.6
Assists
27.5 / 25.0
26.0 / 29.0
Blocks
7.5 / 6.1
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 48.2
46.2 / 47.9
Free Throw %
74.7 / 80.8
82.6 / 88.9
Rebounding
48.2 / 48.9
53.0 / 43.0
Steals
9.7 / 8.4
6.0 / 17.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 15.4
21.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
HOU
ATL
HOU
ML
50%
52-52
61%
69-44
55%
48-40
59%
51-35
ATS
53%
55-48-1
62%
70-43
55%
48-40
59%
51-35
TTL
53%
55-48-1
51%
58-55
100%
88-0
100%
86-0
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