MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
1-1 | Road
121
MIAMI
HEATMIA
1-0 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
60%
HEAT
40%
BUCKS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-7 points
27.0%
MIL By 8-14 points
19.0%
MIA By 1-7 points
22.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
11.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
116.37
MILWAUKEE
Miami
114.08
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
MILWAUKEE
Miami
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bucks
Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bucks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
MIL @ MIA
105 - 112
Feb 24, 2026
MIA @ MIL
117 - 128
Nov 26, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 106
Oct 6, 2025
MIL @ MIA
103 - 93
Apr 5, 2025
MIL @ MIA
121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+14.5% more
Milwaukee: 13.7
vs
Miami: 11.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.2%
Milwaukee: 56.0%
vs
Miami: 47.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Milwaukee: 46.7%
vs
Miami: 43.1%
Steals (L5)
+69.9% more
Miami: 10.4
vs
Milwaukee: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
116.4
121
MIA Score
114.1
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.1 / 46.7
32.6 / 33.3
Assists
26.8 / 28.3
24.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.5 / 4.8
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.9 / 56.0
42.2 / 51.7
Free Throw %
81.6 / 75.0
87.5 / 79.3
Rebounding
44.4 / 36.0
52.0 / 47.0
Steals
10.4 / 6.1
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 13.7
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MIL
MIA
MIL
ML
48%
46-50
64%
61-35
59%
48-34
60%
49-32
ATS
51%
49-47
68%
65-31
59%
48-34
60%
49-32
TTL
59%
57-39
55%
53-43
100%
82-0
100%
81-0
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