Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Timberwolves IND @ MIN

INDIANA

PACERSIND

1-0  |  Road

132
FINAL
Mon, Mar 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

1-1  |  Home

130
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
48%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
52%
PACERS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.9
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 points (Minnesota)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

13.9%

Timberwolves Cover

86.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -10.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

IND By 1-7 points

9.5%

IND By 8-14 points

2.8%

MIN By 1-7 points

21.8%

MIN By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
113.32
INDIANA
124.18
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
INDIANA
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 237.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 7, 2026 MIN @ IND 124 - 104
Oct 26, 2025 IND @ MIN 110 - 114
Oct 7, 2025 IND @ MIN 135 - 134
Mar 24, 2025 MIN @ IND 103 - 119
Mar 17, 2025 IND @ MIN 132 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +29.9% more
Minnesota: 5.4 vs Indiana: 4.1
Rebounding (L5) +21.0% more
Minnesota: 45.8 vs Indiana: 37.9
Turnovers (L5) +9.4% more
Minnesota: 12.7 vs Indiana: 11.6
Steals (L5) +8.9% more
Minnesota: 9.9 vs Indiana: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 113.3 132
MIN Score 124.2 130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.4 / 34.2 31.0 / 45.9
Assists 29.7 / 29.9 25.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.1 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 50.3 / 47.9 45.4 / 49.5
Free Throw % 73.5 / 78.1 80.6 / 82.6
Rebounding 45.8 / 37.9 44.0 / 48.0
Steals 9.9 / 9.1 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 11.6 15.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
IND
MIN
IND
ML
54% 63-53
48% 47-50
54% 50-43
54% 45-38
ATS
58% 67-49
59% 57-40
54% 50-43
54% 45-38
TTL
63% 72-43-1
54% 52-45
100% 93-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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