MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
1-1 | Road
120
INDIANA
PACERSIND
1-0 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
55%
PACERS
45%
BUCKS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
MIL By 1-7 points
25.0%
MIL By 8-14 points
14.8%
IND By 1-7 points
25.6%
IND By 8-14 points
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
111.69
MILWAUKEE
Indiana
112.01
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
MILWAUKEE
Indiana
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.7
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
IND @ MIL
123 - 134
Feb 6, 2026
IND @ MIL
99 - 105
Dec 23, 2025
MIL @ IND
111 - 94
Nov 3, 2025
MIL @ IND
117 - 115
Apr 29, 2025
MIL @ IND
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Indiana: 48.9%
vs
Milwaukee: 44.9%
Steals (L5)
+35.8% more
Milwaukee: 8.7
vs
Indiana: 5.6
Turnovers (L5)
+23.7% more
Milwaukee: 14.4
vs
Indiana: 11.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.6%
Milwaukee: 81.6%
vs
Indiana: 78.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
111.7
120
IND Score
112.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.2 / 37.9
35.1 / 36.4
Assists
28.0 / 26.0
26.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.1 / 4.3
7.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 44.9
44.4 / 46.4
Free Throw %
78.0 / 81.6
63.3 / 75.0
Rebounding
46.0 / 43.5
50.0 / 51.0
Steals
5.6 / 8.7
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
11.0 / 14.4
18.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIL
IND
MIL
ML
48%
47-50
64%
61-35
54%
45-38
60%
49-32
ATS
59%
57-40
68%
65-31
54%
45-38
60%
49-32
TTL
54%
52-45
55%
53-43
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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