Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Timberwolves HOU @ MIN

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

0-0  |  Road

117
FINAL
Tue, Nov 26 • 8:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

1-1  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
67%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
33%
ROCKETS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.3 points (Minnesota)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

26.3%

Timberwolves Cover

73.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -6.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

HOU By 1-7 points

16.4%

HOU By 8-14 points

6.5%

MIN By 1-7 points

26.7%

MIN By 8-14 points

24.6%

AI Model Projected Score
111.96
HOUSTON
118.29
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
HOUSTON
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Loss
33% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 MIN @ HOU 136 - 132
Mar 25, 2026 HOU @ MIN 108 - 110
Jan 16, 2026 MIN @ HOU 105 - 110
Feb 21, 2025 MIN @ HOU 115 - 121
Feb 6, 2025 HOU @ MIN 114 - 127
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Minnesota: 36.4% vs Houston: 31.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.1%
Minnesota: 79.4% vs Houston: 75.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Minnesota: 44.6% vs Houston: 42.2%
Steals (L5) +30.0% more
Houston: 10.8 vs Minnesota: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 112.0 117
MIN Score 118.3 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 31.1 23.7 / 40.5
Assists 20.8 / 22.8 21.0 / 31.0
Blocks 3.6 / 5.1 4.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 42.2 42.9 / 45.5
Free Throw % 79.4 / 75.3 90.0 / 92.3
Rebounding 42.0 / 49.1 52.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.6 / 10.8 6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 13.1 17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
HOU
MIN
HOU
ML
54% 63-53
61% 69-44
54% 50-43
59% 51-35
ATS
58% 67-49
62% 70-43
54% 50-43
59% 51-35
TTL
63% 72-43-1
51% 58-55
100% 93-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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