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TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

0-1  |  Road

101
FINAL
Sat, Oct 26 • 8:00 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

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112
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
50%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
50%
RAPTORS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.2 points (Minnesota)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

3.4%

Timberwolves Cover

96.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -18.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

TOR By 1-7 points

2.5%

TOR By 8-14 points

0.4%

MIN By 1-7 points

10.3%

MIN By 8-14 points

21.3%

AI Model Projected Score
95.58
TORONTO
113.82
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
106
TORONTO
118
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.2
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 209.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 TOR @ MIN 107 - 115
Feb 4, 2026 MIN @ TOR 128 - 126
Nov 21, 2024 MIN @ TOR 105 - 110
Oct 26, 2024 TOR @ MIN 101 - 112
Apr 3, 2024 TOR @ MIN 85 - 133
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Minnesota: 36.3% vs Toronto: 31.8%
Blocks (L5) +65.1% more
Toronto: 7.3 vs Minnesota: 2.5
Steals (L5) +38.3% more
Toronto: 8.9 vs Minnesota: 5.5
Turnovers (L5) +23.5% more
Toronto: 21.2 vs Minnesota: 16.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 95.6 101
MIN Score 113.8 112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 31.8 37.8 / 34.5
Assists 23.5 / 27.6 29.0 / 29.0
Blocks 2.5 / 7.3 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 45.7 47.0 / 45.6
Free Throw % 79.0 / 78.9 76.9 / 69.2
Rebounding 45.2 / 47.6 41.0 / 46.0
Steals 5.5 / 8.9 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 16.2 / 21.2 13.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TOR
MIN
TOR
ML
54% 63-53
55% 57-47
54% 50-43
55% 48-39
ATS
58% 67-49
61% 62-40-2
54% 50-43
55% 48-39
TTL
63% 72-43-1
60% 62-42
100% 93-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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