UCLA
UCLAUCLA
4-0 | Road
10
USC
USCUSC
5-1 | Home
29
Key Game
KEY GAME
Mateen Bhaghani
#15 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Ryon Sayeri
#48 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Mateen Bhaghani | None-None |
| Ryon Sayeri | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCLA
30%
USC
70%
UCLA
--
USC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (USC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USC -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)
UCLA By 1-6 points
0.9%
UCLA By 7-13 points
0.3%
USC By 1-6 points
2.5%
USC By 7-13 points
6.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UCLA
7
UCLA
USC
38
USC
Simulated Score
UCLA
UCLA
USC
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
USC
Win
70% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
USC (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 45.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 29, 2025
UCLA @ USC
10 - 29
Nov 23, 2024
USC @ UCLA
19 - 13
Nov 18, 2023
UCLA @ USC
38 - 20
Nov 19, 2022
USC @ UCLA
48 - 45
Nov 20, 2021
UCLA @ USC
62 - 33
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+70.1% more
USC: 22.8
vs
UCLA: 13.4
Total Yards (L5)
+51.4% more
USC: 405.2
vs
UCLA: 267.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+17.0% more
USC: 0.5
vs
UCLA: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5)
+13.3% more
USC: 118.0
vs
UCLA: 104.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score
7.0
10
USC Score
38.0
29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
22.8 / 13.4
21.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards
118.0 / 104.2
131.0 / 108.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.3
0.67 / 0.42
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards
405.2 / 267.6
388.0 / 308.0
Turnovers
1.3 / 1.5
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 26.0
ATS +/-: +18.0
USC
5-1-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.8
ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 26.0
ATS +/-: +18.0
USC
1-5-0
(16.7%)
Margin: 11.8
ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +9.3
USC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
UCLA
USC
UCLA
ML
100%
6-0
50%
2-2
83%
5-1
50%
2-2
ATS
67%
4-2
33%
1-2-1
67%
4-2
0%
0-3-1
TTL
50%
3-3
50%
2-2
50%
3-3
25%
1-3
Contextual Game News
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