Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTSA @ North Texas UTSA @ UNT

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

4-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 12:05 PM ET
DATCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

3-2  |  Home

55
Key Game
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
@
Chase Canada
KEY GAME

Chase Canada

#5 | Cornerback
Player
Caile Hogan None-None
Chase Canada None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTSA
0%
📊
NORTH TEXAS
100%
UTSA --
NORTH TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (UTSA)
UTSAUTSA (-3.5) 0 North TexasUNT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTSA Cover

97.7%

North Texas Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTSA -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

UTSA By 1-6 points

3.8%

UTSA By 7-13 points

8.8%

UNT By 1-6 points

1.4%

UNT By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
UTSA
11
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
UTSA
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI UTSA Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UTSA (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u60.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2025 UTSA @ UNT 17 - 55
Nov 15, 2024 UNT @ UTSA 27 - 48
Nov 4, 2023 UTSA @ UNT 37 - 29
Dec 2, 2022 UNT @ UTSA 27 - 48
Oct 22, 2022 UNT @ UTSA 27 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +137.0% more
North Texas: 2.3 vs UTSA: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +23.5% more
North Texas: 24.2 vs UTSA: 19.6
Total Yards (L5) +11.4% more
North Texas: 442.1 vs UTSA: 396.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
North Texas: 0.5 vs UTSA: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 39.0 17
UNT Score 11.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.2 / 19.6 34.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 161.2 / 168.0 270.0 / 214.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 442.1 / 396.9 584.0 / 329.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
UNT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
UNT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
UTSA
UNT
UTSA
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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