Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas A&M @ Arkansas TA&M @ ARK

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

3-2  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Oct 18 • 1:30 PM ET
Razorback Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

2-3  |  Home

42
Key Game
Julio Humphrey
KEY GAME

Julio Humphrey

#6 | Cornerback
@
Wyatt Simmons
KEY GAME

Wyatt Simmons

#10 | Linebacker
Player
Julio Humphrey None-None
Wyatt Simmons None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS A&M
0%
📊
ARKANSAS
100%
TEXAS A&M --
ARKANSAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Texas A&M)
Texas A&MTA&M (-3.5) 0 ArkansasARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas A&M Cover

97.7%

Arkansas Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TA&M -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

TA&M By 1-6 points

3.8%

TA&M By 7-13 points

8.8%

ARK By 1-6 points

1.4%

ARK By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
TEXAS A&M
11
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
TEXAS A&M
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texas A&M Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas A&M (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 ARK @ TA&M 7 - 34
Oct 18, 2025 TA&M @ ARK 45 - 42
Sep 28, 2024 ARK @ TA&M 17 - 21
Sep 30, 2023 TA&M @ ARK 34 - 22
Sep 24, 2022 ARK @ TA&M 21 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +122.5% more
Arkansas: 2.3 vs Texas A&M: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +12.9% more
Arkansas: 24.4 vs Texas A&M: 21.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Arkansas: 0.5 vs Texas A&M: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TA&M Score 39.0 45
ARK Score 11.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.4 / 21.6 25.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 208.6 / 204.6 268.0 / 217.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 478.1 / 444.3 527.0 / 497.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TA&M Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
ARK
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TA&M Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
ARK
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TA&M
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.9
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
TA&M
ARK
TA&M
ML
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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