Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Houston @ Oregon St HOU @ ORST

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

4-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Fri, Sep 26 • 6:35 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

3-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
@
Cameron Smith
KEY GAME

Cameron Smith

#37 | Place kicker
Player
Liam Dougherty None-None
Cameron Smith None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOUSTON
100%
📊
OREGON ST
0%
HOUSTON --
OREGON ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
20.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Oregon State)
HoustonHOU (-3.5) 0 Oregon StORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Houston Cover

28.4%

Oregon St Cover

71.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORST -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

HOU By 1-6 points

12.2%

HOU By 7-13 points

8.8%

ORST By 1-6 points

16.1%

ORST By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6
HOUSTON
14
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
HOUSTON
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oregon St Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oregon St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 20.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 ORST @ HOU 20 - 33
Sep 26, 2025 HOU @ ORST 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +59.0% more
Oregon State: 1.5 vs Houston: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.3% more
Houston: 178.2 vs Oregon State: 77.9
Total Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Houston: 361.1 vs Oregon State: 294.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 6.0 27
ORST Score 14.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.5 / 17.3 22.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 77.9 / 178.2 189.0 / 82.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.41 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 294.1 / 361.1 390.0 / 352.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
ORST
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
HOU
ORST
HOU
ML
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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