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FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

4-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 4:30 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

3-2  |  Home

38
Key Game
Josh Roberts
KEY GAME

Josh Roberts

#10 | Defensive Back
@
Robert Czeremcha
KEY GAME

Robert Czeremcha

#48 | Place kicker
Player
Josh Roberts None-None
Robert Czeremcha None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FAU
45%
📊
FIU
55%
FAU --
FIU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
FAUFAU (-3.5) 0 FIUFIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FAU Cover

99.7%

FIU Cover

0.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FAU -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)

FAU By 1-6 points

0.9%

FAU By 7-13 points

2.8%

FIU By 1-6 points

0.2%

FIU By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
41
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
3
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Simulated Score
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI FAU Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI FAU (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 FIU @ FAU 10 - 16
Sep 13, 2025 FAU @ FIU 28 - 38
Sep 14, 2024 FIU @ FAU 20 - 38
Nov 12, 2022 FAU @ FIU 52 - 7
Oct 2, 2021 FIU @ FAU 21 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +36.7% more
Florida Atlantic: 2.1 vs Florida International: 1.3
First Downs (L5) +24.1% more
Florida Atlantic: 25.6 vs Florida International: 19.4
Total Yards (L5) +21.1% more
Florida Atlantic: 480.1 vs Florida International: 378.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.9% more
Florida Atlantic: 192.8 vs Florida International: 162.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAU Score 41.0 28
FIU Score 3.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 25.6 17.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 162.2 / 192.8 224.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 378.6 / 480.1 408.0 / 478.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.1 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
FIU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
FIU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
FIU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -22.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FIU
FAU
FIU
FAU
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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