Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ 49ers NE @ SF

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

2-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Sep 29 • 4:05 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

4-0  |  Home

30
Key Game
Mitch Wishnowsky
KEY GAME

Mitch Wishnowsky

#19 | Punter
@
Jacob Cowing
KEY GAME

Jacob Cowing

#4 | Wide Receiver
Player
Mitch Wishnowsky None-None
Jacob Cowing None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
50%
📊
49ERS
50%
PATRIOTS --
49ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.5 points (San Francisco)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 49ersSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

13.4%

49ers Cover

86.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SF -15.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

NE By 1-6 points

6.8%

NE By 7-13 points

3.9%

SF By 1-6 points

11.8%

SF By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
13.01
NEW ENGLAND
28.54
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
NEW ENGLAND
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI 49ers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 49ers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.5
D
Sim Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.6
D
Sim u0.0 Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 29, 2024 NE @ SF 13 - 30
Oct 25, 2020 SF @ NE 33 - 6
Nov 20, 2016 NE @ SF 30 - 17
Dec 16, 2012 SF @ NE 41 - 34
Oct 5, 2008 NE @ SF 30 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +153.6% more
San Francisco: 269.7 vs New England: 106.3
Total Yards (L5) +79.2% more
San Francisco: 403.3 vs New England: 225.0
First Downs (L5) +72.9% more
San Francisco: 23.8 vs New England: 13.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +56.4% more
San Francisco: 6.1 vs New England: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 13.0 13
SF Score 28.5 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 13.8 19.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 269.7 / 106.3 283.0 / 143.0
Rushing Yards 133.6 / 118.7 148.0 / 73.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.54 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 403.3 / 225.0 431.0 / 216.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.0 2.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 3.9 7.2 / 3.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
NE
SF
NE
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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