Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Dodgers TB @ LAD

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

41-27  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Jun 15 • 10:00 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

45-27  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Steven Matz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Matz

#32 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Steven Matz None-None 5.84 -- 2.0 1
Tanner Scott None-None 2.40 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
5.84 ERA Ldr 2.40
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
50%
📊
DODGERS
50%
RAYS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

40.1%

Dodgers Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

16.3%

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7
TAMPA BAY
6
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim Rays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 TB @ LAD 4 - 5
Jun 16, 2026 TB @ LAD 0 - 1
Jun 15, 2026 TB @ LAD 3 - 4
Aug 3, 2025 LAD @ TB 3 - 0
Aug 2, 2025 LAD @ TB 0 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.728
OPS
▲ .762
169
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +27.1% more
Tampa Bay: 3.2 vs Los Angeles: 2.3
Strikeouts (L5) +15.7% more
Tampa Bay: 10.4 vs Los Angeles: 8.8
Home Runs (L5) +47.5% more
Los Angeles: 1.7 vs Tampa Bay: 1.2
Home Runs (Season) +20.7% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 7.0 3
LAD Score 6.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 8.8 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 10.4 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 13.8 15.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.2 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
TB
LAD
TB
ML
56% 92-73
58% 95-68
48% 79-87
58% 95-68
ATS
59% 98-67
60% 97-66
43% 72-94
55% 90-73
TTL
48% 77-82-6
47% 73-81-9
44% 70-90-6
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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